Politicians’ Theories of Politics

Lucas, Jack, Lior Sheffer, Peter Loewen, Stefaan Walgrave, Karolin Soontjens, Eran Amsalem, Stefanie Bailer, Nathalie Brack, Christian Breunig, Pirmin Bundi, Linda Coufalová, Patrick Dumont, Sarah Lachance, Miguel Pereira, Mikael Persson, Jean-Benoit Pilet, Anne Rasmussen, Maj-Britt Sterba, and Frédéric Varone. Forthcoming. “Politicians’ Theories of Voting Behavior.” American Political Science Review. // Data and Replication Files
Lucas, Jack, Peter Loewen, and Lior Sheffer. 2024. “Are Politicians Democratic Realists? European Journal of Political Research 63 (4): 1426-1444. // Supplementary Material, Data and Replication Files
Sheffer, Lior, Jack Lucas, and Peter Loewen. 2024. “Long-Term Policymaking and Politicians’ Beliefs about Voters: Evidence from a Three-Year Panel Survey of Politicians.” Governance 37(2): 395-410. // Supplementary Material, Data and replication files

Political Representation and Elite Behaviour

Dias, Nicholas, Jack Lucas, and Lior Sheffer. Forthcoming. “Beyond the Mean: How Thinking About The Distribution of Public Attitudes Reduces Politicians’ Perceptual Errors.” Political Science Research and Methods.
Lucas, Jack, Lior Sheffer, and Peter Loewen. Forthcoming. “Pathways to Political Representation: Congruence and Knowledge among Canadian Politicians.” Political Behavior. // Data and Replication Files, Supplementary material, Short Summary
Lucas, Jack and Lior Sheffer. 2025. “What Explains Elite Affective Polarization? Evidence from Canadian Politicians.” Political Psychology 46 (1): 71-84.
Franceschet, Susan, Jack Lucas, and Erica Rayment. 2024. “Do Women Politicians Know More about Women’s Policy Preferences? Evidence from Canada.” Politics & Gender 20 (3): 579-597.
Lucas, Jack. 2024. Ideology in Canadian Municipal Politics. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
- Winner, 2024 Seymour Martin Lipset Best Book Award, APSA Canadian Section.
Blidook, Kelly, Royce Koop, and Jack Lucas. 2022 “Municipal Representation Style and Focus: Evidence from Canadian Mayors and Councillors.” Representation 58 (4): 603-622.

Urban-Rural Divides and Place-Based Politics

Borwein, Sophie, Jack Lucas, Tyler Romualdi, Zack Taylor, David Armstrong, and Katie McCoy. Forthcoming. “Urban-Rural Issue Divides.” European Journal of Political Research.
Borwein, Sophie and Jack Lucas. Forthcoming. “Place Types.” Canadian Journal of Political Science.
Borwein, Sophie, Jack Lucas, and Cameron Anderson. Forthcoming. “Lay Theories of Place Effects.” Political Psychology 45 (6): 1069-1086.
Taylor, Zack, Jack Lucas, David A. Armstrong II, and Ryan Bakker. 2024. “The Development of the Urban-Rural Cleavage in Anglo-American Democracies.” Comparative Political Studies 57 (8): 1339-1374. // Supplementary Material , Data and Replication Files
Borwein, Sophie and Jack Lucas. 2023. “Municipal Identity and City Interests.” Political Behavior. 45(3): 831-853. // Supplementary Material , Data and Replication Files
Borwein, Sophie and Jack Lucas. 2023. “Asymmetries in Urban, Suburban, and Rural Place-Based Resentment.” Political Geography (105): 1-10.
Taylor, Zack, Jack Lucas, J.P. Kirby, and Christopher Hewitt. 2023. “Canada’s Federal Electoral Districts, 1867-2021: New Digital Boundary Files and a Comparative Investigation of District Compactness.” Canadian Journal of Political Science. 56(2): 451-467. , Data and Replication Files
Armstrong, David, Jack Lucas, and Zack Taylor. 2022. “The Urban-Rural Divide in Canadian Federal Elections, 1896–2019.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 55 (1): 84-106. // Preprint Version , Supplementary Material , Short Summary

Municipal Ideology / Policy Attitudes / Spatial Voting

McPherson, Carter, Jack Lucas, and R. Michael McGregor. Forthcoming. ”Issue Accountability in Non-Partisan Municipalities: A Case Study.” Urban Affairs Review.
Lucas, Jack. 2024. Ideology in Canadian Municipal Politics. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
- Winner, 2024 Seymour Martin Lipset Best Book Award, APSA Canadian Section.
Armstrong, David A. II, and Jack Lucas. 2024. “The Structure of Municipal Voting in Vancouver.” Journal of Urban Affairs 46 (7): 1412-1433.
Lucas, Jack. 2024. “Are Municipal Politicians Ideological Moderates?” Cities 155 (12). // Preprint, Short Summary
Lucas, Jack, R. Michael McGregor, and Aengus Bridgman. 2023. “Spatial Voting in Non-Partisan Cities: A Case Study” Electoral Studies 82 (102599): 1-12.
Lucas, Jack. 2023. “The Ideological Structure of Municipal Non-Ideology.” Urban Affairs Review 59 (1): 275-293.
Lucas, Jack. 2022 “Do ‘Non-Partisan’ Politicians Match the Partisanship of their Constituents?” Urban Affairs Review 58 (1): 103-128.
Lucas, Jack and David A. Armstrong II. 2021. “Policy Ideology and Local Ideological Representation in Canada.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 54(4): 959-976. // Data and Replication Files , Policy Ideology Estimates for Municipalities and Federal Electoral Districts
Lucas, Jack and Alison Smith. 2019. “Which Policy Issues Matter in Canadian Municipalities? A Survey of Municipal Politicians” School of Public Policy Research Papers. 12: 1-26. (Refereed report).

Urban Political Development and Municipal Governance

Horak, Martin, Jack Lucas, and Zack Taylor, Eds. Forthoming. City Politics in Canada: Forty Years of Continuity and Change. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
Lucas, Jack. Forthcoming. “Institutional Change as Urban Theory: The Fall of At-Large Politics in Calgary, Alberta.” Urban History Review.
Breton, Charles, Jack Lucas, and Zack Taylor. 2023. “Local Autonomy: Unconditional Elites and Conditional Publics.” Local Government Studies 49 (6): 1263-1284.
Eidelman, Gabriel and Jack Lucas. 2023. “How Do Municipal Mayors and Councillors Communicate with other Levels of Government? Evidence from a Multi-level Survey of Canadian Elected Officials” Canadian Public Administration 66(1): 78-95
- Winner, Hodgetts Award for best article in the 2023 volume of Canadian Public Administration.
Lucas, Jack. 2020. “Reaction or Reform? Subnational Evidence on P.R. Adoption from Canadian Cities.” Representation 56(1): 89-109. // Supplementary material
Lucas, Jack and Alison Smith. 2020 “Performance, Effectiveness, and Legitimacy in Canadian Municipal IGR.” In Canadian Federalism: Performance, Effectiveness, and Efficiency (4th Ed.), edited by Herman Bakvis and Grace Skogstad. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
Lucas, Jack. 2016. Fields of Authority: Special Purpose Governance in Ontario, 1815-2015. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
Peterson, Jacqueline, Jack Lucas, and Andrew Klain. 2019. “Cities, Places, and Provincial Policy Agendas.” Canadian Public Administration 62 (2): 249-269. // Data.
- Honourable mention, Hodgetts Award for best article in the 2019 volume of Canadian Public Administration.
Lucas, Jack and Alison Smith. 2019. “Multilevel Governance from the Municipal Point of View.” Canadian Public Administration. 62(2): 270-293. // Data and replication files , Supplementary material.
- Winner, Hodgetts Award for best article in the 2019 volume of Canadian Public Administration.
Lucas, Jack and Anthony Sayers. 2018. “Accountability, Responsiveness, and the Local Political Career in Calgary and Edmonton.” In Accountability and Responsiveness at the Municipal Level: Views from Canada, edited by Sandra Breux and Jerome Couture. Montreal/Kingston: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
Sayers, Anthony and Jack Lucas. 2017. “Policy Responsiveness and Political Accountability in City Politics.” School of Public Policy Research Papers 10(4): 1-23. (Refereed report).
Lucas, Jack. 2018. “Toward Delegation: Social Policy Centralization in Toronto, 1870-1929.” Journal of Policy History 30(2): 272-300.
Lucas, Jack. 2017. “Urban Governance and the American Political Development Approach.” Urban Affairs Review 53(2): 338-361.
Lucas, Jack. 2017. “Patterns of Urban Governance: A Sequence Analysis of Long-Term Institutional Change in Six Canadian Cities.” Journal of Urban Affairs 39(1): 68-90. // Data and replication files
Lucas, Jack. 2016. Fields of Authority: Special Purpose Governance in Ontario, 1815-2015. Toronto: University of Toronto Press. // Data and replication files
Lucas, Jack. 2015. “Local Governance and the Local Political Career: A Sample Dataset.” Canadian Public Administration 58(4): 605-617. // Data and replication files
Lucas, Jack. 2015. “How Ontario Hydro Went Local: The Creation of Rural Power Districts and the Central Ontario System.” Scientia Canadensis 37(1-2): 59-76.
Lucas, Jack. 2013. “Berlin, Ontario in the Age of the ABC.” Urban History Review 41(2): 19-42.

Municipal Elections and Voting

Lucas, Jack and R. Michael McGregor, Eds. 2021. Big City Elections in Canada. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
Dillabough, Elliot and Jack Lucas. Forthcoming. “Municipal Politicians and Local Electoral Institutions in Canada: An Overview.” Canadian Public Administration.
McGregor, R. Michael, Laura Stephenson, Helen Hayes, Cameron Anderson, and Jack Lucas. Forthcoming. “Understanding Public Support for Electoral Reform in Ontario, Canada.” Election Law Journal.
Anderson, Cameron, Jack Lucas, and R. Michael McGregor. 2024. “Urban home values and multi-level political accountability: Evidence from Calgary, Canada.” Journal of Urban Affairs 46(5): 1053-1069.
Artiles, Alexandra, Sandra Breux, Meagan Cloutier, Susan Franceschet, and Jack Lucas. 2024. “Women’s Representation in Canadian Municipalities.” Urban Affairs Review 60 (5): 1577–1593.
Hiller, Harry, Jack Lucas and R. Michael McGregor. 2024. “Why Do Local Residents Oppose Olympic Bids? An Electoral Perspective from Calgary 2026.” Event Management 28 (5): 749-761.
McGregor, R. Michael, Jack Lucas, Chris Erl, and Cameron Anderson. 2024. “Understanding Support for Municipal Political Parties: Evidence from Canada.” Urban Affairs Review 60 (5): 1382–1410.
Conrad, Laura and Jack Lucas. 2023. “Women’s Inclusion and Participation in Municipal Elections: Historical Evidence from Eligible Voter Lists.” Urban History Review. 51 (1): 145-153.
Lucas, Jack, R. Michael McGregor, and Kim-Lee Tuxhorn. 2022 “Closest to the People? Incumbency Advantage and the Personal Vote in Non-Partisan Elections” Political Research Quarterly 75 (1): 188-202. // Supplementary Material , Data and replication files
Lucas, Jack, Reed Merrill, Kelly Blidook, Sandra Breux, Laura Conrad, Gabriel Eidelman, Royce Koop, Daniella Marciano, Zack Taylor, Salomé Vallette. 2021. “Women’s Municipal Electoral Performance: An Introduction to the Canadian Municipal Elections Database.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 54(1): 125-133. // Data and replication files , Supplementary Material
McGregor, R. Michael, Cameron Anderson, Éric Bélanger, Sandra Breux, Jack Lucas, Scott Matthews, Anne Mévellec, Aaron Moore, Scott Pruysers, Laura Stephenson, and Erin Tolley. 2021. “The Canadian Municipal Election Study.’’ Frontiers in Political Scie- Lucas, Jack and R. Michael McGregor. 2020. “Are City Elections Unique? Perceptions of Electoral Cleavages and Social Sorting Across Levels of Government.” _Electoral Studies 66: 1-8. nce_.
Lucas, Jack. 2021 “The Size and Sources of Municipal Incumbency Advantage in Canada.” Urban Affairs Review. 57(2): 373-401. // Data and replication files
Lucas, Jack and R. Michael McGregor. 2020. “Are City Elections Unique? Perceptions of Electoral Cleavages and Social Sorting Across Levels of Government.” Electoral Studies 66: 1-8.
McGregor, R. Michael and Jack Lucas. 2019. “Who Has School Spirit? Explaining Voter Participation in Calgary School Board Elections.” Canadian Journal of Political Science. // Data and replication files
Goodman, Nicole and Jack Lucas. 2016. “The Policy Priorities of Municipal Candidates in the 2014 Ontario Elections.” Canadian Journal of Urban Research 25(2): 35-47.

Other Papers

Lucas, Jack, Tyler Romualdi, David A. Armstrong II, and Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant. Forthcoming. “Demographic Divides in Canadian Voting, 1945-2022: The Canadian Vote Intention Dataset.” Canadian Journal of Political Science. // Interactive App, R Package
McGregor, R. Michael, Simon Kiss, Jack Lucas, and Andrea Perrella. Forthcoming. “Where Public Health meets Public Opinion: Understanding Political Support for Fluoridation in Calgary 2021.” Canadian Journal of Public Health.
Erl, Chris, R. Michael McGregor, Jack Lucas, and Cameron Anderson. 2023. “Resentment and admiration: Public opinion towards teachers and public sector employees in Ontario.” Canadian Journal of Education. 46 (3): 597-627.
Franceschet, Antonio, Jack Lucas, Brenda O’Neill, Elizabeth Pando, and Melanee Thomas. 2022. “Editor Fatigue: Can Political Science Journals Increase Review Acceptance Rates?” PS: Political Science and Politics. 55 (1): 117:122. // Data and replication files
Armstrong, David, Matthew Lebo, and Jack Lucas. 2020 “Do COVID-19 Policies Affect Mobility Behaviour? Evidence from 75 Canadian and American Cities.” Canadian Public Policy 46(2): 127-144.
Armstrong, David, and Jack Lucas. 2020. “Measuring and Comparing Municipal Policy Responses to COVID-19.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 53(2): 227-238. // Online Appendix , Data and replication files
Davidson, Adrienne, Jack Lucas, and R. Michael McGregor. 2020. “Politics and Religion: Identifying the Correlates of Support for Merging the Public and Separate School Systems in Ontario.” Canadian Journal of Education 43(1): 229-257.
Weijs, Cynthia, Sara Gobrail, Jack Lucas, Jennifer Zwicker, and Lindsay McLaren. 2019. “Identifying and critically examining government legislation relevant to children’s dental caries in Calgary, Alberta, Canada: a health inequities lens.” Journal of Public Health Dentistry 79(2): 137-146.
Lucas, Jack and Robert Vipond. 2017. “Back to the Future: Historical Political Science and the Promise of Canadian Political Development.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 50(1): 219-241.
Lucas, Jack. 2013. “A Century of Political Science in Canada.” Journal of Canadian Studies 47(2): 89-118. [paper]

By Jack Lucas. Based on Hugo Researcher